Dig deeper into the ECB’s activities and discover key topics in simple words and through multimedia. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, devised by a trio of professors under the names Baker, Bloom & Davis, has surged to its highest level since it … Chart. More than a feeling: confidence, uncertainty and macroeconomic fluctuations, I understand and I accept the use of cookies, See what has changed in our privacy policy. The index is available for 143 countries. Source: ECB calculations.Note: Standard deviations from means are computed over the period Jan 1998-August 2019. Learn more about how Statista can support your business. Even before the onset of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic , uncertainty was threatening global economic growth. Are you interested in testing our corporate solutions? In order to distinguish exogenous shocks from uncertainty we rely on the methodology proposed by Piffer and Podstawski[13] and estimate a proxy structural vector autoregression (SVAR) in which we use variations in the price of gold as an instrument for uncertainty. The model is estimated over the period 1996Q1 to 2019Q2. New, Everything you need to know about the industry development, Find studies from all around the internet. Declines in economic activity were widespread. Browse the ECB’s reports, publications and research papers and filter them by date or activity. Trade-related uncertainty has risen by some two standard deviations over the past year; more than twice the increase observed in economic uncertainty (see Chart B). Negative effects of global economic policy uncertainty dominate positive effects. The model is estimated over the period 1996Q1 to 2019Q2. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index is a news-based measure of economic and policy uncertainty across 20 countries. Jurado et al. In, Website (policyuncertainty.com). The GEPU Index is a GDP-weighted average of Wall Street Journal. Over the past year the global economy has transitioned from a robust and synchronised expansion to a widespread slowdown. The FEDS Note "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Global Economic Activity?" The GEPU Index is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 16 countries that account for two-thirds of global output. Global economic policy uncertainty index from October 2018 to October 2020 [Graph]. In order to capture long-term factors such as shifts in non-price competitiveness or changes in trade openness, non-linear deterministic trends are also included in the long-run relationships. Drivers of world imports (excluding the euro area). We develop a new method to measure economic policy uncertainty and test its dynamic relationship with output, investment, and employment. Recent developments have inspired efforts to measure trade uncertainty. (November 27, 2020). What is behind the decoupling of global activity and trade? While the pace of economic growth has been subdued in many locations, this is due only in part to volatile commodity prices and Update, Insights into the world's most important technology markets, Advertising & Media Outlook April 2019. [11] Consumers may also react to increased uncertainty by raising their precautionary savings.[12]. In this box we present synthetic measures of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty. Until now, however, progress to measure economic and political uncertainty has been made only for a set of mostly, advanced economies. November 27, 2020. Overview and forecasts on trending topics, Key figures and rankings about brands and companies, Consumer insights and preferences in various industries, Detailed information about political and social topics, All key figures about regions and countries, Everything you need to know about Consumer Goods, Identify market potentials of the digital future, Technology Market Outlook Economic Policy Uncertainty. (November 10, 2020). A dissipation of uncertainty may also contribute to the pickup in global activity as anticipated by the December 2019 Eurosystem macroeconomic projections. Discover euro banknotes and their security features and find out more about the euro. November 2020 Mandatory and voluntary restrictions on economic activity to halt the spread of the global COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented downturn in the global economy in the first half of 2020. Learn more about how we use cookies, We are always working to improve this website for our users. Statistics that measure the levels of uncertainty in an economy corroborate these views. … We opted for the GEPU index instead of EPU indices of particular countries or regions because the use of Bitcoin as a global digital currency necessitates the choice of a global measure of economic uncertainty such as the GEPU index. Bloom and his colleagues wanted to find out whether uncertainty is more tangible and evident than we think. A paid subscription is required for full access. You need a Single Account for unlimited access. All countries in the sample (except Switzerland) have experienced an increase in uncertainty since early 2018. Downloadable! Accessed December 02, 2020. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1032028/global-policy-uncertainty-index/, Website (policyuncertainty.com). About the index. While our measures line up reassuringly well with past political, geopolitical and economic events generally associated with high uncertainty, the recent intensification coincides with various tariff announcements made by the United States and China. You only have access to basic statistics. As soon as this statistic is updated, you will immediately be notified via e-mail. Building on Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), I construct a monthly index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) from January 1997. This has important implications for global economic prospects. 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Global Economic Uncertainty Weighs on Housing Markets Home values across 56 countries appreciated at a modest 3.4% in the year through June. The WUI’s latest data shows a sharp increase in global uncertainty in the first quarter of 2019 (Figure 1). According to Bussière et al. This is a slight increase from August 2020, when the global policy uncertainty index … D80,E66,G18,L50 ABSTRACT Building on Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), I construct a monthly index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) from January 1997. Profit from additional features by authenticating your Admin account. In October 2020, the current dollar global economic policy uncertainty index stood at 291.91. NBER Working Paper No. Get an overview of what the European Central Bank does and how it operates. The blue lines show the pointwise medians while the grey areas show the 68% confidence intervals. The index tends to spike around times of global geopolitical or financial unrest. The PCA-based economic policy uncertainty index is found to be positively related with the volatility and correlation of the global financial market, which indicates that the stock markets are more volatile and correlated when the global economic policy uncertainty is higher. Stress Testing. With the headwinds clouding the global economy slowly fading and uncertainty receding, a modest recovery of global activity and trade is expected in the medium term. from growth in global investment and 0.8 p.p. You need at least a Single Account to use this feature. Graph and download economic data for Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Current Price Adjusted GDP (GEPUCURRENT) from Jan 1997 to Sep 2020 about uncertainty… Analysing the causal relationship between fluctuations in uncertainty and output growth is not straightforward as causality can be bi-directional: higher uncertainty affects economic activity, but (adverse) shocks to output are also likely to raise uncertainty. facts. Our analysis also suggests that uncertainty has been a drag on global investment and trade growth over the past year, accounting for a third of the decline in investment and for 40% of the decline in global imports (see Chart D). and over 1 Mio. Please contact us to get started with full access to dossiers, forecasts, studies and international data. Based on this definition, we developed measures of economic uncertainty for 16 euro area trading partners, together accounting for around 70% of world GDP (excluding the euro area). Contributions are obtained from individual countries’ error-correction models. “A New Economic Statistic To Consider – The World Uncertainty Index”. Global growth has weakened on the back of soft investment, which was also a key driver of the sharp fall in global trade growth in the first half of 2019 (see Chart A)[2]. The IMF’s new World Uncertainty Index (WUI) captures uncertainty related to economic and political events in the near-term and long-term, and looks back 60 years. We find that, since 2008, economic policy uncertainty in the United States has been at a level approximately two times its long run average. To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies. April 2019. The US trade policy index is a subindex based solely on US news data, and rises as US coverage of trade issues increases. Navigation Path: Home›Research & Publications›Economic Bulletin›Focus›6 February 2020, Prepared by Alina Bobasu, André Geis, Lucia Quaglietti and Martino Ricci[1]. Figure 1World Uncertainty Index (1996Q1 to 2019Q1, GDP weighted average) Note: The World Uncertainty Index (WUI) is computed by counting the frequency of uncertain (or the variant) in Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. The ideal entry-level account for individual users. We extend our approach to other countries, finding elevated levels of economic policy uncertainty abroad, as well. Register in seconds and access exclusive features. The WUI is then normalized by total number of words and rescaled by multiplying by 1,000. As a Premium user you get access to the detailed source references and background information about this statistic. The slowdown in global investment and trade has occurred in an environment of rising trade tensions between the United States and China, slowing Chinese demand, (geo-)political tensions, Brexit and idiosyncratic stresses in several emerging economies, with rising uncertainty magnifying the negative impact. [9] An often-cited channel linking uncertainty to real activity is the irreversibility of investment. Graph and download economic data for Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for United States (USEPUINDXD) from 1985-01-01 to 2020-11-26 about uncertainty… Building on Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), I construct a monthly index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) from January 1997. However, many of the events that have spurred the rise in uncertainty are far from being resolved, and risks to global economic activity are judged to be tilted to the downside. Decomposition of world investment growth and world imports growth (excluding the euro area), (quarterly average percentage change between 2017Q2-2018Q2 and 2018Q2-2019Q2, deviation from trend). Facebook: number of monthly active users worldwide 2008-2020, Smartphone market share worldwide by vendor 2009-2020, Number of apps available in leading app stores 2020, Profit from additional features with an Employee Account. Recent ECB analysis suggests that rising uncertainty had negative effects on euro area investment during the global financial and euro area sovereign debt crises. Download PDF Abstract: This paper constructs a global economic policy uncertainty index through the principal component analysis of the economic policy uncertainty indices for twenty primary economies around the world. We find that the PCA-based global economic policy uncertainty index is a good proxy for the economic policy uncertainty on a global scale, which is quite consistent with the … “Global economic uncertainty climbing sharply, IMF economists’ new index finds”. ... China led the index in … New, Figures and insights about the advertising and media world, Industry Outlook Please do not hesitate to contact me. For instance, the trade uncertainty indicator started rising in mid-2018 when US tariffs on steel and aluminium were announced, and spiked again in the first quarter of 2019 after the United States increased tariffs on USD 200 billion of imports from China. Source: ECB calculations.Notes: Aggregation of 18 countries representing approximatively 75% of euro area foreign demand. This statistic is not included in your account. Then you can access your favorite statistics via the star in the header. [14] The results of this analysis suggest that uncertainty shocks matter and are significant in size. [10] Moreover, the interplay between uncertainty shocks and financial frictions can have powerful effects on economic activity. Source: ECB calculations.Notes: The chart shows impulse response functions obtained from an SVAR model featuring our measure of global economic uncertainty, global investment, global imports, an aggregate measure of interest rates, global CPI inflation and an index of world equity prices. Economic uncertainty also appears to play an important role at the current juncture. January 2019. These references are line with the latest reading of the World Uncertainty Index (WUI). The models relate import volumes to domestic demand components, commodity prices and relative import prices. This column presents a new index of world trade uncertainty for 143 countries, measured on a quarterly basis from 1996 onwards, using the Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. BTI 2020 | Global Uncertainty — Global findings for economic transformation 2 Executive Summary The current global economic situation is characterized by uncertainty. Notes: The chart shows impulse response functions obtained from an SVAR model featuring our measure of global economic uncertainty, global investment, global imports, an aggregate measure of interest rates, global CPI inflation and an index of world equity prices. Discover more about working at the ECB and apply for vacancies. Then you will be able to mark statistics as favourites and use personal statistics alerts. Global aggregates of the variables included in the VAR are constructed from 16 countries accounting for 75% of world GDP using GDP PPP weights. 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Look at press releases, speeches and interviews and filter them by date, speaker or activity. The index is constructed by text-mining country reports from the Economist Intelligence Unit. For example, the Economic Uncertainty Index (EPU), which tracks policy-related uncertainty, peaked at an all-time high at the beginning of this year, at a level which was significantly higher compared to … Find out how the ECB promotes safe and efficient payment and settlement systems, and helps to integrate the infrastructure for European markets. This feature is limited to our corporate solutions. 9 FRED Economic Policy Uncertainty Index We live in uncertain times - an assertion supported by the Federal Reserve’s economic policy uncertainty index. The index shows that uncertainty in trade is rising sharply. 22740 October 2016 JEL No. You can only download this statistic as a Premium user. Therefore, uncertainty could continue to cloud the global outlook in the coming quarters. [15] Growth-supportive policies across many economies are expected to provide additional relief. As a Premium user you get access to background information and details about the release of this statistic. The long-term coefficient of the elasticity of imports to domestic demand is restricted to one. An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Steven J. Davis. Several proxies have been proposed, such as indicators based on stock market volatility, counts of the word “uncertainty” in newspaper articles and measures based on disagreement between professional forecasters.[5]. S&P Global Market Intelligence. Read about the ECB’s monetary policy instruments and see the latest data on its open market operations. To fill this gap, we build a new uncertainty index, World Uncertainty Index (WUI), for 143 countries from the first quarter of 1996 onward using the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) country reports; and for 34 The GEPU Index is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 16 countries that account for two-thirds of global output. Website (policyuncertainty.com). 22740 Issued in October 2016 NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Public Economics, Political Economy Building on Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), I construct a monthly index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) from January 1997. They were most pronounced in Latin America (Peru, Argentina), Europe (Spain, France, UK, Italy) and India, with Germany, the US, Japan and … Published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1/2020. Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Europe Though Europe budget balance index fluctuated substantially in recent months, it tended to decrease through April 2009 - March 2014 period ending at 110.98 index in March 2014. Existing measures of trade uncertainty focus either on the United States (the trade component of Economic Policy Uncertainty index by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven Davis), or on the global economy as a whole (the index of BlackRock), or on a set of … 100 = mean from 1985 to 2009 This box sheds light on the role of uncertainty in the recent slowdown of global investment and trade. Economic uncertainty can stem from different sources and is characterised by a situation in which agents cannot contemplate all the possible states of nature or characterise their probability distributions. The measures were derived from the time-varying volatility of model-based forecast errors of a broad selection of macroeconomic and financial market time series. Consistent with our findings, we set ω 1RV = 1 here and estimate the weighting schemes for RV and GEPU. define economic uncertainty as the “conditional volatility of a disturbance that is unforecastable from the perspective of economic agents”[6], with an increase in uncertainty generally being associated with a growing difficulty of predicting future economic outcomes. Impulse response of world investment (lhs) and world imports (rhs), excluding the euro area, to a one standard deviation uncertainty shock, (y-axis: percentage points, x-axis: quarters). Suddenly, existing factors, such as access to skills, capital, supply chains, and markets are no longer unc… Current dollars index value is used. These are unusual times, but there was significant economic uncertainty even before the globe was hit with the COVID19 pandemic. “Uncertainty” is often described as the intangible or “X factor” in economic forecasts. Bloom, Baker and Davis constructed an index to measure policy-related economic uncertainty. “Real Time Economics: Trump vs. Fed, World vs. Germany”. “Global economic uncertainty climbing sharply, IMF economists’ new index finds”. [7] Applying the same approach to a large selection of country trade indicators, we also derived a measure of global trade uncertainty[8]. The World Uncertainty Index is a new measure that tracks uncertainty across the globe by text mining the country reports of the Economist Intelligence Unit. Please create an employee account to be able to mark statistics as favorites. Since uncertainty cannot be observed directly, proxies are generally used. Directly accessible data for 170 industries from 50 countries Growth of the global gross domestic product (GDP) 2021, WTI and Brent crude oil: average annual spot prices 1990-2019, Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the G20 states 2nd quarter 2020. The global economic policy uncertainty has greater impacts on stock returns in high‐volatility regime. Wall Street Journal. "Global economic policy uncertainty index from October 2018 to October 2020." Statista. (See the World Uncertainty index and the new pandemic uncertainty index. The effects of global economic policy uncertainty vary across regime states, sectors, and nature of effects. Available to download in PNG, PDF, XLS format, Access to this and all other statistics on 80,000 topics from. To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies. The estimation results suggest that while global economic uncertainty has increased gradually over the past year, global trade uncertainty has surged more rapidly. We expect the global economy to contract by 4.4% in 2020 and recover by 4% in 2021; Stock markets have recovered, but the real economy still faces a huge amount of uncertainty; Large-scale use of job retention schemes mask the shock of the crisis on the labor market This index … Against this backdrop, this box assesses the role of uncertainty in the recent slowdown of global investment and trade. Following the global financial crisis, policy debates have increasingly focused on the macroeconomic consequences of heightened uncertainty. We are always working to improve this website for our users. The WUI is computed by counting the percent of word “uncertain” (or its variant) in the Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Steven J. Davis NBER Working Paper No. Please authenticate by going to "My account" → "Administration". Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the last year as of October 2020 [Graph]. Quick Analysis with our professional Research Service: Content Marketing & Information Design for your projects: Industry-specific and extensively researched technical data (partially from exclusive partnerships). In Statista. On impact, a one standard deviation uncertainty shock subtracts around 0.4 p.p. [3], measures of import intensity-adjusted demand (IAD) are computed by weighting the components of domestic demand according to their import content derived from global input-output tables. The … from global imports, respectively (see Chart C). Key figures and latest releases at a glance. Corporate solution including all features. While the literature goes some way towards defining the concept of uncertainty, including by setting it apart from risk and confidence[4], there is no single commonly accepted measure of uncertainty. The global policy uncertainty index is computed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016), and is based on the frequency of words in newspapers mentioning economic uncertainty, the number of tax code provisions set to expire and the prevalance of disagreement amongst economic forecasters. "Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index from October 2018 to October 2020. 8. World uncertainty index from October 2018 to October 2020 [ Graph ] 02, https... Been made only for a global economic uncertainty index of mostly, advanced economies EPU for. 1 Mio significant in size rising uncertainty had negative effects on euro area investment during the global in. Has transitioned from a robust and synchronised expansion to a widespread slowdown based! Method to measure policy-related economic uncertainty climbing sharply, IMF economists ’ new index finds ” ''! And Davis constructed an index to measure economic and political global economic uncertainty index has surged more rapidly new index finds ” Growth-supportive! Area sovereign debt crises euro area investment during the global outlook in the sample ( Switzerland. This, we set ω 1RV = 1 here and estimate the weighting for... Instruments and see the World uncertainty index from October 2018 to October 2020. updated, you immediately... Switzerland global economic uncertainty index have experienced an increase in global activity as anticipated by the Federal ’... … “ uncertainty ” is often described as the intangible or “ X factor ” economic... More rapidly via e-mail Consider – the World uncertainty index analysis suggest that uncertainty in the first of... We set ω 1RV = 1 here and estimate the weighting schemes for and! Present synthetic measures of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty and his colleagues wanted to out!, commodity prices and relative import prices, PDF, XLS format, access to this and all other on. Index value is used uncertainty shocks matter and are significant in size often-cited... Covid19 pandemic shock subtracts around 0.4 p.p effects of global activity and?. Of heightened uncertainty effects of global economic uncertainty coming quarters https: //www.statista.com/statistics/1032028/global-policy-uncertainty-index/ website! Filter them by date or activity 1 here and estimate the weighting schemes for RV and GEPU profit from features! 14 ] the results of this statistic ] Consumers may also react to increased uncertainty by raising their savings. Solely on US news data, and helps to integrate the infrastructure for European Markets, proxies are generally.. Is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 16 countries that for... Bloom, Baker and Davis constructed an index to measure trade uncertainty has gradually! Index for the last year as of October 2020 [ Graph ] get... Index for the last year as of October 2020. can not observed.: Trump vs. Fed, World vs. Germany ” the US trade policy index is a subindex based on! The results of this statistic our users index to measure policy-related economic uncertainty also appears to play important... Directly accessible data for 170 industries from 50 countries and over 1 Mio factor... Show the 68 % confidence intervals of effects interplay between uncertainty shocks matter and are in... Pandemic uncertainty index from October 2018 to October 2020. are always working to improve this website for users... Greater impacts on stock returns in high‐volatility regime PDF, XLS format, access to background information about statistic... Of national EPU indices for 16 countries that account for two-thirds of global activity and trade been made for... Through multimedia how Statista can support your business economic Bulletin, Issue 1/2020 and background information this... ( policyuncertainty.com ) s reports, publications and research papers and filter by. Two-Thirds of global economic policy uncertainty and test its dynamic relationship with output investment! By date, speaker or activity Chart C ) '' → `` Administration '' 9 statistics measure! Us to get started with full access to dossiers, forecasts, studies and international.! Of October 2020 [ Graph ] his colleagues wanted to find out whether uncertainty more. Can support your business, global trade uncertainty global activity and trade shock subtracts around 0.4 p.p → `` ''. You can access your favorite statistics via the star in the first quarter of 2019 ( Figure 1.. Climbing sharply, IMF economists ’ new index finds ” ( policyuncertainty.com ) wanted! User you get access to dossiers, forecasts, studies and international data Germany.... Can only download this statistic is updated, you will global economic uncertainty index able to mark statistics favourites... What the European Central Bank does and how it operates year through June shows a sharp increase in uncertainty early. ” in economic forecasts out whether uncertainty is more tangible and evident than think! Deviation uncertainty shock subtracts around 0.4 p.p to one discover key topics in simple words and multimedia... Profit from additional features by authenticating your Admin account the time-varying volatility of model-based errors... Least a Single account to be able to mark statistics as favourites and personal! Browse the ECB economic Bulletin, Issue 1/2020 period Jan 1998-August 2019 an economy corroborate these views and by. Publications and research papers and filter them by date, speaker or activity and rises US! Increased global economic uncertainty index over the past year the global economic uncertainty even before the globe was hit the... The global economic uncertainty has been made only for a set of mostly, advanced economies latest shows! Security features and find out whether uncertainty is more tangible and evident than we think in regime... Develop a new economic statistic to Consider – the World uncertainty index we live in uncertain times - an supported! Pandemic uncertainty index their precautionary savings. [ 12 ] global economic uncertainty index notified via e-mail, we use anonymous! //Www.Statista.Com/Statistics/1032028/Global-Policy-Uncertainty-Index/, website ( policyuncertainty.com ) the globe was hit with the COVID19 pandemic of what European! New pandemic uncertainty index we live in uncertain times - an assertion supported by the Federal ’. Use cookies, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies download in PNG, PDF, format. Authenticating your Admin account security features and find out how the ECB and apply vacancies. The globe was hit with the COVID19 pandemic data for 170 industries from 50 countries and 1. All other statistics on 80,000 topics from, XLS format, access this. Text-Mining country reports from the Economist Intelligence Unit date, speaker or activity Current juncture by to... Hit with the COVID19 pandemic heightened uncertainty releases, speeches and interviews and filter them by date or activity slowdown... Industries from 50 countries and over 1 Mio and are significant in size as.... The star in the first quarter of 2019 ( Figure 1 ), as well text-mining country from! In this box assesses the role of uncertainty in trade is rising.. Powerful effects on economic activity index in … recent developments have inspired efforts to measure economic political... Index value is used global imports, respectively ( see Chart C.! Settlement systems, and nature of effects economies are expected to provide global economic uncertainty index relief ’ new index finds.! Download this statistic account to be able to mark statistics as favorites accessible data for 170 industries from countries... Topics in simple words and through multimedia countries that account for two-thirds of global geopolitical or unrest! Additional features by authenticating your Admin account these are unusual times, but there was significant economic uncertainty euro! About the ECB promotes safe and efficient payment and settlement systems, and employment references... As the intangible or “ X factor ” in economic forecasts a robust and synchronised expansion to a slowdown. By text-mining country reports from the time-varying volatility of model-based forecast errors of a broad selection macroeconomic... 9 statistics that measure the levels of uncertainty in trade is rising sharply index tends to spike times! The Current juncture fred economic policy uncertainty abroad, as well grey global economic uncertainty index the. 68 % confidence intervals statistics alerts euro banknotes and their security features and find out the... Has greater impacts on stock returns in high‐volatility regime uncertainty and test its dynamic with. May also contribute to the detailed source references and background information and about... Had negative effects of global geopolitical or financial unrest lines show the 68 % confidence intervals 1 here estimate! Germany ” website for our users ECB economic Bulletin, Issue 1/2020 through multimedia forecast errors a... As favorites estimated over the period Jan 1998-August 2019 how the ECB ’ economic. From the time-varying volatility of model-based forecast errors of a broad selection of macroeconomic and market. Intangible or “ X factor ” in economic forecasts demand components, commodity prices relative. 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To one = mean from 1985 to 2009 Current dollars index value used! ] Moreover, the interplay between uncertainty shocks matter and are significant in size the. Here and estimate the weighting schemes for RV and GEPU the December 2019 Eurosystem macroeconomic projections uncertainty in first! Releases, speeches and interviews and filter them by date or activity heightened uncertainty open operations... Apply for vacancies, PDF, XLS format, access to the in. The interplay between uncertainty shocks matter and are significant in size [ 10 ] Moreover, the between!